US weather agencies have recently announced the formation of an El Nino weather condition, which is expected to intensify until the winter months this year. This news coincides with the arrival of the monsoon in the Indian mainland, starting with Kerala.
El Nino is characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific, along with changes in global wind currents. While it doesn’t always guarantee poor summer monsoon rains in India, it often has that effect. After a gap of four years, El Nino conditions have resurfaced, with the last event occurring in 2018-19. In their monthly update, US weather agencies under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that all El Nino parameters were met in May, including sea surface temperatures being at least 0.5 degrees C above average, ongoing wind anomalies, and increased rainfall along the equator. For the past two months, global weather agencies have been predicting the development of El Nino during this year’s summer.
As a result, the entire monsoon season (June-September) is likely to be influenced by a strengthening El Nino. This suggests that overall weather patterns will not favor abundant rainfall during this period.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Chief of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), stated that the five dynamical weather models used in their new multi-model ensemble forecasting system for the monsoon predicted normal rainfall over the four-month period. However, these models do not provide specific information on which weather parameters are likely to counterbalance the impact of El Nino. It is worth noting that positive Indian Ocean conditions (IOD) are expected to support rainfall. Since 2000, six out of seven El Nino years have coincided with below-normal monsoon rains in India, with the exception of 2006 when El Nino developed in September. Out of these six drought years, five experienced rainfall below 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). According to the US update, El Nino is currently weak, with a 66% chance of strengthening to a moderate event in the July-August-September period, and a 54% chance of becoming a strong event by October-November-December.
Despite these statistics, it is crucial to monitor the evolving situation and understand the potential implications of El Nino on the monsoon season. The impact of this weather phenomenon can significantly influence rainfall patterns and consequently affect various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, and the overall economy.